Trainers,

recently there has been a lot of speculation in the Pokémon GO research community on the mechanics behind evolution item drops. Our own research showed that evolution items drop rates are around 0.15% (roughly 0.03% per item), however, due to lack of data we had no breakthroughs on drop mechanics.

This seems to be changing now, as the research community proposed a number of competing theories and a number of trainers reported seeing the same phenomena: PokéStops dropping one evolution item every day at the same time.

This theory is yet to be validated and thoroughly researched, but we decided to write about it in order to speed up the research and data collection. Recently, a Google Form was published, asking fellow trainers to record the time of their Evolution item drops.

We urge all readers to submit their drops here in order to help researches validate this theory.

Theory origins and speculation

The theory originated on reddit, with a number of trainers reporting that a majority of their drops occurred at the same time of day. Refer to the following screenshot of a Trainer showing that 2 out of 3 drops he got happened at almost the same time (11:01 PM)!

In another discussion, titled “More Evolution item time stamp evidence”, a redditor shared the following experience:

Been following this since last week. 10:23 everyday in front of Peck hall I get 1 item…

To push things even further, another Trainer reported getting Evolution items at exactly the same time:

To keep things short, I want to report the following:

I have only received four evolutionary items: a metal coat about 3 weeks ago (7th day streak), one sun stone and one king’s rock (same day, back-to-back stops), and one dragon scale. Here’s the cool part: sun stone, king’s rock and dragon scale were acquired from different stops AT THE EXACT SAME TIME.

http://imgh.us/2017-03-12_00.45.11.png

http://imgh.us/2017-03-13_22.52.13.png

These images are of the last three items I received, the sun stone and king’s rock were on saturday, while the dragon scale was today. The curious thing is, I received these items at the exact same time: 4:50 pm, which is extremely bizarre.

This leads me to believe that evolutionary items are set to specific times during the day, and that’s the reason most people here haven’t gotten a single evolutionary item.

If I remember correctly, there was once a post (r/pokemongo) about someone who found up to 7 evolutionary items exactly at 12:00 am, which is similar to what happened to me, but at a different time. Probably different times for different players?

I’ll keep trying this during the week, to see if similar items are obtained. I live in Monterrey, Mexico, Central Time Zone, the same one for Mexico City, and San Antonio, Texas

We are currently investigating this subject and will report back soon with our findings.

  • Rillan

    1 item per day ? for real ? Since they are in game i got only ONE for all that time. So dont tell me stories about 1 per day.

    • GonzoI

      Try spinning a lot of unique stops if you can. My best day was traveling to nests in another town.

      • Rillan

        I live in small city and its our country capital. There are no other cities u can go cost-effective in 700km range. Others are even smaller and have only few pokestops (cheked). So unless i start spoofing or move to another country your advice wont work. Same goes to unknows – it is sad that game mostly is about western people which already have everything while i or my friends never saw any of them.

        • GonzoI

          These pity parties of yours probably work better if the other person doesn’t do their homework. There are quite a few not-western capitals, but you posted elsewhere that you’re either in “Georgia (not USA state)” or close enough to have reason to look up food prices there. That narrows it down to about 12 reasonably accessible capitals (8 if we’re limiting it to the 700km you mention here and ignoring road limitations that would further reduce it). That’s few enough for me to go to PokemonGoMap.info and see just how “bad” it is in all 12 possibilities. The result: It’s not bad at all. Whichever capital you’re in, you have more pokestops in your capital city than there are in 100km of me in my “western people” country. You may not have the pokestops of Washington DC or London, but you certainly have it better than the person you’re presently complaining to. My suggestion still applies. Try unique pokestops in different parts of your capital city.

          I’ll add a second suggestion: Stop comparing your situation to others as an excuse. If you’re right, it doesn’t improve your situation. When you’re wrong, as in this case, you just get made a fool of online.

  • Frans Smit

    I have 6 items. All except the sun stones. All at different times. In the morning, afternoon and evening. All in the same neighbourhood (1 mile radius) but never more than one per day. I think luck is a big factor. My wife and my friends play it also and at the same time as me. Only my wife received one item and not at the same time as me. I really think it is just luck.

  • Kevin Cartton

    i agree, i pass every day for the same pokestop and in two consecutive days i got two drops items, one per day… But it’s been two weeks since the last drop

  • Joel Jensen

    i have only recieved 2 items since the release of generation 2. first, the sun stone, and then the next day was a kings rock for my 7 day streak. tomorrow that will have been 3 weeks ago. all of my friends are getting them like crazy. it is really fucking pissing me off. i have been waiting for these evolutions and i find out we need items, ok, that is ok, ig, but then u play generation 2 and realize that they are rare as unknown and that every other player in town except u and a few other friends are getting a fucking buttload of mother fucking evolution items! WHAT THE FUCK!!!! Niantic, bring back the fucking 7 day streak drops. btw, a lot of my friends are lower level, like in the level 20s range, and it seems that the lower level trainers aare getting them the most. i have quite a bit of level 30 or higher friends, im level 32, and we barely have gotten shit! wtf should i do, call niantic and bribe them to lower my level? hell no, fuck this shit this game is getting to be really fucking boring and its a waste of my time to try and get a fucking evolution item when ik that im not going to fucking get one!!!! FUCK

    • FireWulf

      It was never about the 7 day streak cause the day after they were released i got 1, then again the next day and then a 3rd the day after, and none of those days were my 7th day spin

      • Joel Jensen

        yes it was, because there were a lot of reports of it happening, it only lasted for a week after release

        • FireWulf

          Well like i said the day after they were released i got 3 in the course of 3 days and none of those were my 7th Day spin so those reports were more than likely flukes, because had it been a 7th day streak thing then i wouldnt have gotten the 3 i did

  • Nascar Joe

    To date I have received 3 sun stones, 2 up grades, 2 steel coats, 1 kings rock, and 1 dragon scale. Did received 2 in one day. Did receive 1 upgrade right after walking porigon enough to evolve. All received within a 1 mile radius. Read several theories, some match but not always.

  • GonzoI

    From most recent to oldest:
    4:10pm
    10:56am
    7:17pm
    9:12pm
    12:00am (midnight)

    All on different stops, and there is one I don’t have a screenshot to get a timestamp from. The midnight spin is a 7-day streak, and before those rates were reduced. The 7:17 and 9:12 I will try to test. The 4:10 was out of town on a Sunday and the 10:56 was on my way (late) into church. Unfortunately, that last one is a King’s Rock that I need another of. The rest are Metal Coat and Sun Stone.

    • GonzoI

      No dice. Tried an hour before and an hour after in addition to the hour, and no evo items.

  • Heydavid17

    I’ve gotten 7 items so far. (1 Metal Coat, 1 Up-Grade, 1 Dragon Scale, 1 Kings Rock & 3 Sun Stones) However, last I got one of these items is around 2 weeks ago I believe, so sadly I don’t remember at all what time it was.

    3 of the items, I even collected on the very first day of Gen 2.
    Yet, I do wonder, when saying that evolution items drop at specific times, then would that mean, that we’re talking about the very same time all around the world, or a specific time of the day for every time zone etc.?

  • Maria

    I have had 3 sun stones, 2 king’s rocks and 1 metal coat… I never paid attention to the time or which stop I was at…

  • RobinE
  • Eivind Grøvik Tandstad

    Noticed same date aswell 😉

  • went to the city on st. patrick’s day and played all day and not one single item

  • Kris Klaiber

    Me and my buddy were out hunting today and we both spun the same pokey stop and I got the item he didn’t… I mean this makes kinda sense gotta be a method to the madness involveing evolution items…

  • Rohan Bhatt
    • Rohan Bhatt

      I have also submitted this data in the link that you provided.

  • Sriram

    Yes, its true. I got sun stone in one poke stop at 1:25 am. A very nearby pokestop got me a Kings rock at 1:31 am. I am gonna spin the same pokestops tomorrow.

  • Leliel

    Hey guys!

    Imho, this whole timestamp theory ‘is just a theory, a game theory’ (couldn’t stop myself). But this pun describes very well my experience with it. I haven’t got any evo item since my 1st 7-day-streak after gen2 launch (it was a metal coat) till march 18-19th when I recived 3 of them (king’s rock x2 and sun stone) from the same pokestop (which is on my apartment) at different hours, as follows: @12:58 of 18th, @17:13 of 18th and the last one @00:18 of 19th. My wife recived one king’s rock too – about 23:00 of march 18th (need to check her phone to be more precise). Cause I was aware of this theory I made screenshots of my and her journals to gather some evidence to confirm or debunk it. Following march 19th I have spinned my pokestop at the same timestamps, my wife too, with no success. As I am writing this I have just spinned my pokestop again @12:58 march 20th with no effect of me having any kind of evo item.
    To sum this up I can see two exlanations of this situation: first is this theory is totally false and the second is there could be seconds (or even deeper) involved in this ‘same time’ timestamp. In the second scenario it will be very tricky to accurately reproduce the timestamps to confirm/debunk this whole theory.
    Anyhow, wishing you luck on the evo items hunt!

    Cheers from Poland 🙂
    Vlad

    PS. Can provide ss if needed.

  • Savu Bogdan

    i dont know how this thing with evolution items works… but its so annoying.. i only got 3 until now, wich is ok, but i have this friend who got 15 so far.. we pretty much play together, we spin almost the same pokestops at the same hours but he seems to be a lot more lucky than i am.. i think i was with him when he got at least 6 or 7 of them and in that time i got none. what i want to say is that i have candies to do all evolutions at least twice each but i get no items for it.. my friend instead he barely have candies to do a couple of them but he gets a ton crap of evolution items.. ohh btw he is only lvl 23 and i am 34..

  • Andrew Veloza

    This theory does have the most optimistic proof of an actual pattern and I understand that it does not seem to be working for everyone. Perhaps Evolution items are on a schedule like nest migrations for Pokemon. I am not saying they share the same schedule but perhaps they are on one of their own.

    Last Friday at 6:45pm I spun a stop and got a Metal coat. I intend to go back today at the same time and try again. If it works then yay! if it doesn’t then it is proof that this is in fact just a theory or perhaps that these items might be on a weekly rotation.

    I’ll Post my findings later today or tomorrow morning. I urge anyone who gets another evolution item to not only take note of the time but the day. Try to visit that poke stop as many times you can at the the same time within the same week. Then when they stop dropping take note of that!

    • Andrew Veloza

      ok so I went to the same stop at the same time but no drop this time. So this may prove that it was just a coincidence for all who have reported on this however I remain optimistic. I still believe that there may still be some merit to this theory and to my addition to it which is that the evolution items might be on a weekly rotation. This would explain why I did not get anything yesterday because Friday is when I got the item.

      However another thing to consider is that perhaps the rotation time is greater then 1 week or may not even exist at all. We got to remember that if any of this holds out, that the drop rate of these items is still only just 0.13%. I simply and the many others with similar outcomes may not have gotten an item yesterday simply because the drop rate was not in my favor.

      It may be that certain (or all) pokestops have a time when they drop an item which may be different times for different players and that is that.

      Only time will tell! I will continue to update if I have anything else interesting to share!

      Also DON’T FORGET TO SAVE YOUR CANDIES!!! 😉 lol

  • Pxl

    Haha, by currently investigating do you mean just taking more content from /r/thesilphroad?

  • bo3rn

    Till yesterday I had only 2 new evolution items.
    Yesterday (and after midnight) I got 3 more.
    All were diffrent Stops.

    March 21st:
    Upgrade 00:32

    March 20th:
    Kings Rock 22:44
    Sun Stone 19:37

    February 28th:
    Sun Stone ~17:45

    February 21st:
    Dragon Scale (7 Day Spin Reward ~00:01)

  • eMike

    It’s a bullshit! Yesterday I received Metal Coat. Today I went to the same pokestop at the same time and received nothing.

  • Pascal F

    Tested this theory twice with metal coat and sun stone, failed both times.

  • Markus Friede Hens

    I would assume that most people have a fast routine (like collecting stops on the way to work, in lunch break, on the regular evening stroll with their kids), meaning they are out spinning stops mainly at the same time of day. So it would be expected that you get evolution items at the same time of day, because it simply is the time when you spin most of your stops. You will in general not reach the same stop at exactly the same time, but you will reach a stop at a given point in time (say 11:30).

    Then there is another effect: once you experienced that you got two of the items at the same time, you start spinning stops at the same time, thus exaggerating the non-uniform distribution of poke stops, basically making the theory into a self-fullfilling prophecy.

    For the claim to be valid, you would need to have a uniform distribution of poke stop spins over a longer period of time.