A redditor name lolypuppy has created a great analysis covering the past few days of the Global Catch Challenge and depicting how the current catch numbers relate to the overall 3 billion catches goal.

The results are very interesting, as they show we should be reaching as high as 3.5 B catches if the latest catch trend continues and we should definitely hit the 3 B mark if the current average continues.

The following graph depicts the trends in question:

About the graph:

  • Yellow line: the goal to reach 3,000,000,000 Pokemon;
  • Red line: our current results (as soon as we reach the goal line, it will become green);
  • Red dotted line: trend following our overall average;
  • Green line: trend if we keep catching as much as the pace of the last segment informed by Niantic;

More info

According to Lolypuppy’s analysis, the past reported segment the “partial trends” are increasing with every new metric reported by Niantic, indicating that more and more players are participating in the challenge.

Unsurprisingly, the largest increase occurred when we managed to unlock the Bronze reward tier, activating double XP and increased worldwide spawns.

The following table details every segment Lolypuppy recorded (timeframe is the time between Niantic’s report tweets) and it translates the segment data to a trend metric. The second column should be taken with a grain of salt:

Timeframe Equivalent catches/day
24 hours (19th 10:43am – 20th 10:43am) 298M
12 hours (20th 10:43am – 20th 11:17pm) 385M
15 hours (20th 11:17pm – 21st 02:12pm) 468M
10 hours (21st 02:12pm – 22nd 01:14am) 500M
10 hours (22nd 01:14am – 22nd 11:45am) 509M
11 hours (22nd 11:45am – 22nd 11:10pm) 567M

Finally, the complete metrics for November 19th – 22nd were also collected:

Week day Timeframe Pokemon caught
Sunday 19th 10:43am – 20th 10:43am 298M
Monday 20th 10:43am – 21st 10:43am 414M
Tuesday 21st 10:43am – 22nd 10:43am 497M
  • Leo Luo

    Interesting. Very interesting.

  • Jayden Plays Pokemon GO

    Ok. Not even gonna bother to understand this. Im just thinking this. Catch catch catch means far… fetch’d…

    • peponzio

      The graph does lack information. Axis metrics specifically.

      On the left we can see number of catches in millions. So 0 million, then 500 million, then 1,000 million (1 billion), 1,500 million (1.5 billion), etc.

      Below we can see the number of days of the event. So in 7 days we need to catch 3,000 million (3 billion). And the orange line is the ideal of the event from 0 to 3,000 million (left to right, bottom to top).

      Green line is estimated real catches if we continue catching (increasing) like we have been doing the last three days. We should end day 7 just below 3,500 million catches and reaching the 3,000 million goal in day 6 just before hour 6 (6.25 days approximately).

      Red line is real catches up to day 3 and a half. And the red dotted line is estimated real catches if we continue to catch exactly as we are right now, with no increase in player’s or catches per player.

      The tables below show the data used to build those lines.

  • Michal Hušák

    1.732 M reached. Unfortunately looks like we slow down :-(.

    • Geo

      like you’re going to skip thanksgiving dinner to play pokemon go, not sure the wife/mom/gf is going to let you do that.

      • Mr Martinez

        Planet America?

        • spoofer

          Isnt thanksgiving universal ? :shocked: when do other nations eat their turkey and celebrate their successful genocides ?!?!

          • Genocides? I wasn’t aware that the pilgrims jumped off the ships like Vikings and started slaughtering natives on the shore. Take your bullshit somewhere else, dikhead. We celebrate thanksgiving in honor of God’s blessings.

          • Fuji San

            Pitiful attempt at trying to whitewash your history.
            While the pilgrims didn’t slaughter the natives on the shore right when they arrived, they still did a massive genocide on the natives over the years. Mostly because of religious zealotry, they were “filthy heathens” and thus worth less than dirt, in their eyes. Those who didn’t fall prey to one of the many massacres the pilgrims did to the natives, were at least expelled from their own land, where they had lived for hundreds of years.

          • Robdebobrob

            You know if you look at it from a logical stance, Europe is to blame for that. Since we colonized that continent.

          • vision33r

            Without America, Europe belongs to the Nazis.

          • WingedSupernova

            You mean Russia.

          • vision33r

            Lol, did you fail History class? Did you know that Russia could not have beaten the Nazis in Europe. After Hitler took Poland, they were well on their way to taking over Russia except their tanks could not storm through cold weather.

          • WingedSupernova

            You forget the part where Russia then proceeded to not just push Germany back all the way to Germany, but then defeat them in Berlin and raise their flag.
            If Russia hadn’t been there Germany would have continued steamrolling everyone. The US did miniscule work in comparison to Russia when it came to defeating Germany since they were more preoccupied with Japan at the time. I’m pretty sure you don’t understand that even if it was because Germany couldn’t overcome Russia’s weather that Russia won, Russia was still able to deal with the elements just fine and then defeated them under normal circumstances in their home country.

          • spoofer

            You might not have bad intentions but it is what it is. Just think how would you feel about all this if you were a native american… i mean at least dont “celebrate” it…

          • Frankline Noah

            Funny that’s coming from a spoofer!! GTFO! Keep your politics someplace else!

          • spoofer

            The way I see it, spoofers are the smart ones. Dont see why someone not spoof and waste so much time and money on this…

          • FacePuncher

            ***

        • vision33r

          Yes, it happens to be where Niantic HQ is. How about you Europeans try coming up with something innovative and disruptive for once in the 21st century.

      • Michal Hušák

        What is “thanksgiving” ? Some crazy ritual to prevent pokemon catching ?

      • vision33r

        Most ppl are like “You’re still playing that?”

    • spoofer

      Dont worry, they will give the goods in the end anyways… guaranteed…

    • Daniel Doiron

      as long we avg 400M + per day till 27, well reach it , half the US and japan is lured half or full days atm

    • Robdebobrob

      640K XP, 150K stardust today. Slowing down? I dont think so 🙂

  • Dominic Perez

    Let’s get that Farfetch’d bois!

    • vision33r

      Catching one right now without even trying.

  • Chris Seals

    I think this is nonsense. I think they’re just making up the numbers as they go along. : )

  • Darren Taljaard

    You can all have my extra Kangas… I’m over them. Farfetchd appeals though!

  • vision33r

    Yarn, had all of these regional Pokemons a year ago already. Niantic loves salivating its players.

    • Alaska Stark

      Dirty Spoofer or so damn rich that you can travel around? 😉 Other people still need them, egomaniac xD ….and I guess you mean ‘Yawn’, not ‘yarn’..

      • vision33r

        It’s much harder to hatch the babies than catch Farfetched. At some point Niantic will hand them out as a special. Most casuals already stopped playing because Niantic just doesn’t know what gameplay means.