2020 Lunar New Year Lucky Trade Odds are around 9% now

The Silph Science group reported that Lucky Trade chances for newly caught Pokémon have been increased to about 9% in the last 24 hours, almost doubling from the initially reported 5%!

This news comes as a shocker, as first data collected during the first event day suggested that initially there has been no increase in Lucky odds. According to the report published by the research group, the data is significantly different when compared to day 1 of the event:

Researchers have completed 993 trades of new Pokémon during the second 24 hours of the event. Of these trades, 94 became lucky. This is an average probability of 9.5%, with a 99% confidence interval of 7.2% – 12.0%. These data are significantly different from trades completed during the first 24 hours of the event (Chi-squared test, p-value = 2.9e-5).

According to Niantic’s official announcement, the Lunar New Year 2020 event bonuses are expected to increase the odds of becoming Lucky Friends and acquiring Lucky Pokémon:

  • Be sure to trade more often with your friends—the likelihood of becoming Lucky Friends will be increased.
  • When you trade a Pokémon, there will be an increased chance it will become a Lucky Pokémon.

It seems like the bonuses are now live, being late one day into the event. For those of you who need a reminder on Lucky Pokémon, here’s a quick summary of their features:

  • Minimum IVs for Lucky Pokemon are 12 / 12 / 12 (80%) (* see end of article for comprehensive explanation)
  • Lucky Pokemon require 50% less Stardust to power up
  • Lucky Pokemon are exclusively available from Trading with other Trainers

You can become Lucky Friends by participating in various regular in-game activities:


Antonio started the Hub in July 2016 and hasn't had much sleep since. Software developer. Discord username: Zeroghan. 29 years old.

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