Community Day Event Shiny Odds


A lot of our readers are wondering what is the chance to encounter a shiny Pokemon during the Community Day events. The chance is roughly 1 in every 25 spawns, or around 4%. The chance was observed to be the same during Pikachu and Dratini Community day events.

Full credits for these numbers go to redditor /u/chflorian who collected data from local and online groups and calculated the following numbers for the Dratini event (sample size included 186k recorded catches):

  • average amount of catches: 134
  • average amount of shinies: 5
  • total amount of recorded catches: 186252
  • total amount of recorded shinies: 7526
  • average shiny rate:
    • 5 / 134 = 3.73%
    • 7526 / 186252 = 4.04%

/u/Dozo1971 (another reddit user) has confirmed these numbers in his local community by running a survey with 56 participants and observing the same results.

Be aware that these odds and numbers do not guarantee that you will encounter a shiny Community Day Pokémon every 25 encounters. These numbers illustrate an average chance to encounter it, rather than explaining phenomena like back to back shiny or long streaks of non-shiny encounters.

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