Trainers, a redditor by the name cjmithli has collected hatch data from 2573 eggs from 23 redditors scattered throughout /r/pokemongo and /r/thesilphroad and managed to calculate hatch chances for every Pokemon in the current 7KM egg pool.

Without further ado, here are the hatch chances for 7KM Eggs:

  • Chance to hatch a regional is 12.5%
    • Kangaskhan – 4%
    • Tauros – 4%
    • Mr.Mime – 2.25%
    • Farfetch’d – 2.25%
  • Chance to hatch an Alolan Pokemon is 75%
    • Alolan Grimer – 7.5%
    • Alolan Vulpix  – 11.25%
    • Alolan Geodude – 11.25%
    • Alolan Sandshrew – 15%
    • Alolan Diglet – 15%
    • Alolan Meowth – 15%
  • Chance to hatch a Tangela or Porygon is 12.5%
    • Tangela – 6.25%
    • Porygon – 6.25%

The data is also available as an infographic, created by the author:

Our thoughts

As a Trainer that’s missing only Farfetch’d and Kangaskhan to complete Gen 1 Pokedex, these numbers are quite underwhelming. With a 4% chance to get Kanga, and 2.25% to get Farftech’d, it’s quite likely that I won’t complete the Kanto Pokedex during the event.

We think that Niantic has dropped the ball on this one, by artificially inflating the rarity of both Pokemon, especially during an event that should be essentially a mop up / catch up event to conclude the Generation 1 era.

In most other games (WoW), events like these guarantee that the player will be realiably able to catch up with the rest of the players base. Reliably is the keyword here – egg hatches and other random drops are not a reliable mechanic.