A Not So Egg-citing Discovery

Adventure Sync Hatchathon
Egg pool shakeup

So there I was: sitting in my room pondering over what my nine 5km egg hatches were about to be, just as they began cracking open.

First egg, Carvanha. Next egg, Ponyta, and so on. Not a single shiny, nor a single good IV Pokémon. Then I started to wonder. How many shiny Pokémon have I hatched? How many 100% IV Pokémon have I hatched? Running the numbers, it was SCARY. I’m going to share with you my findings for both shiny and 100% IV hatched Pokémon.


All the data is from my own personal experience in order to be as transparent as possible. As you can see below, I’ve got a decently large egg hatch medal to gather data from. You’re results however, may vary. Let’s get into it!

Shiny Hatched Pokémon

Although shiny Pokémon were available to be caught in the wild in 2017, shiny Pokémon ONLY became available to hatch in eggs in 2018 when the 1st Community Days starting rolling out.

Because I’ve continuously been hatching eggs since day 1 of the game coming out, I’m going to graciously cut off 1,000 egg hatched off my total of 3,698. That leaves us with 2,698 egg hatches that may or may not of had a chance to be shiny. So the graphic below shows that I’ve ONLY hatched 11 shiny Pokémon thus far up to today!

Doing simple math, 2,698 divided by 11 = 245.27. That theoretically means I’d have to hatch 246 eggs before I’d get a shiny Pokémon! Pretty crazy right?! Of course, today you have better odds of getting a shiny because out egg pools are full of shiny chances. But then again, do we actually have better odds? It’s hard to tell.

Perfect IV Hatched Pokémon

I decided to save the best one for last! Since day 1, 100% IV egg hatches have been possible within the game. So we can take all my egg hatches into consideration with no skewed data! You can probably already see where this is going… I’ve hatched 11 100% IV Pokémon since launch of Pokémon GO.

Taking 3,698 divided by 11 = 336.18. Again, theoretically speaking, it will take me approximately 337 egg hatches before I will get a 100% IV! I was completely dumbfounded by this honestly. To put things into perspective, I’ve caught 27 WILD 100% IV Pokémon up to date. However, that is a different scenario, but if you’d like another statistical article over those comparisons, be sure to let me know!

Concluding Remarks

We subconsciously hatch hundreds of eggs without really thinking about any of the successes we’ve had. I didn’t bring this to my own attention until recently, when I pondered over why I hardly get ANYTHING good from eggs. Which brings me to my next point. I’ve seen many within the community label egg hatching as loot boxes.

I did a video recently going over just that. You can find it here. People such as Joe Merrick, have voiced their opinions on sharing the hatch rates and how it’s even legal not doing so due to laws put into place.

Lastly, I want you guys to calculate your rates respectively and comment them below! I guarantee our rates will be close to one another! Of course, there will be some outliers, but I’m confident all the data will be pooled around one another.

Good luck hatching trainers, you’ll need it!