What the data tells us about this EX raid invitation cycle: February 8, 2018

Trainers, it’s still early days of EX Raid research but several hypothesis have been confirmed with this wave – including both gym and trainer eligibility. As you may have noticed, the EX raid schedule has changed again.

Who got invited

We are still collecting data using this Google form, so submit your data and keep it clean. As of the time of this publication, around 2200 responses were recorded. Out of those responses, this is how things look like (invalid data % are deleted):

Global stats

  • ~51% of participants got an EX raid invite
  • ~49% of participants did not get an EX Raid invite

Winner’s stats overview

  • ~82% of players that received an EX pass also raided this weekend before passes were distributed, ~18% did not
    • We did not ask if that was the only time they’ve raided
  • Gym badge level distribution:
    • Bronze 25.67%
    • Silver 40.93%
    • Gold 27.32%
  • Legendary raid badge level distribution:
    • Bronze 36.11%
    • Silver 56.59%
    • Gold 2.13%
  • Normal raid badge level distribution:
    • Bronze 59.24%
    • Silver 31.93%
    • Gold 3.11%
  • Distribution per level:

This is a quick and dirty analysis that will probably more expanded on later throughout this week. For now, if you want, take a look at the data set and analyse it yourself: link to data collection Google sheet.

Which gyms got chosen

Here’s what we’ve gathered about Gym eligibility:

#1 Old OSM data is still used

Despite the recent in-game map update, Niantic is still using OpenStreetMap data from July-August 2016 to determine eligible gyms. Use this Overpass Turbo query to see which areas are eligible (blue = eligible).

#2 Level 20 cells are used to determine gym location

Niantic is not directly using gym location to determine if a gym is in or out of a park. Niantic is using the center point of a Level 20 S2 cell to check if the gym is in a park. As a result, the above mentioned check is no longer enough – you need to verify that a potentially eligible gym is situated in a Level 20 S2 cell whose center is located in a park area. Credits to u/Tntnnbltn for discovery and image below.

  • Level 20 cells are used to generate Pokémon spawns. Pokémon always spawn in the center of Level 20 cells. Average Level 20 cell size: 77.32 m2
  • Use region coverer to check how Level 20 cells look like, but it’s more or less only applicable to gyms on the very edge of park areas.
Gyms A and B are eligible, C and D are not, despite D looking like it is!

P.S. If you’re wondering, no, I did not receive an EX raid invite. Again. Antonio.

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Zeroghan started the Hub in July 2016 and hasn't had much sleep since. A lover of all things Pokémon, web development, and writing.

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