New Shiny Rates Speculated in Pokémon GO

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Trainers, our good friends over at The Silph Road’s research division have been tirelessly working on reporting their findings on the various different shiny Pokémon rates within Pokémon GO. If you want to see the full article then please click here to view it.

The interesting part is that actually, the rates might be higher than first thought (to give some background, the initial rate was thought to be between 1 in 400 and 1 in 450.) There is new evidence to suggest that the base rate might actually be closer to either 1 in 500 or 1 in 512.

Why is this important?

Well, the main message is that this may explain why you haven’t gotten that shiny Caterpie yet! All jokes aside though, it does mean that you can cut yourself some more slack if you have never caught a particular Pokémon shiny form. A higher rate means that it’s actually harder than we first thought to get a non-boosted shiny.

The 512 number that they have come up with is also particularly interesting for several reasons. The first is that anyone who shiny hunts on the main series Pokémon games may recognize the number 512 as a multiple of the base shiny rate and that applies to several shiny-hunting methods once certain criteria are met, such as using the “Masuda Method” or a shiny charm etc.

It also means that if the true base rate for non-boosted shiny Pokémon is indeed 512 then it could quite easily be true also, that the other types of shinies could be a multiple of this number.

With this idea in mind, TSR have worked on the below chart for the various shiny rates and encounter types. Don’t worry if this looks like “gobbledegook” to you though, I shall explain further down

The New Proposed Shiny Rates In Pokemon Go

Base Rate 1 1/512 1/500
Medium Event 4 4/512 = 1/128 4/500 = 1/125
Permaboost 8 8/512 = 1/64 8/500 = 1/62.5
Raid/Egg (if different from Permaboost) 9 or 10 9/512 ≈ 1/56.9 or 10/512 = 1/51.2 9/500 ≈ 1/55.6 or 10/500 = 1/50
Community Day 20 20/512 = 1/25.6 20/500 = 1/25
Legendary Raid 25 25/512 = 1/20.48 25/500 = 1/20
Raid Event 50 50/512 = 1/10.24 50/500 = 1/10

I shouldnt need to explain what the Community Day rate is but essentially, this rate explains why people find 15-20 shiny Charmander during the Community Day window.

So…What is a “Permaboost” then?

A Permboost is the name give to a species of Pokemon that has its Shiny rate “Permanently Boosted” (so it seems.) Pokemon such as Onix, Sneasel and Scyther fall into this category.

What about a Medium Event?

This is the supposed rate given to some (but not all) new shinies upon their release during a 1-week long or 10-day long event. Pokemon such as Kanto Vulpix and Kricketot fall into this category.

What about “Multipliers”?

Using a 1 in 500 or 1 in 512 shiny rate as a base, it can be concluded (based on their previous research) that other methods of obtaining shinies in-game could simply be the base rate with a multiplier added (a bit like how catching a pokemon works with great/excellent/curveball throws works).

Parting thoughts

It may not make a lot of sense now (particularly as it means that some shinies might be harder to find than we initially thought) but this is HUGE news for the shiny-hunters like myself out there.

We are getting closer to knowing exactly what species of pokemon are easier to pursue than others and makes it easier to keep track of how close or how far over the odds you may be if you haven’t found one yet.

Let me know what you think in the comments below, Trainers.

Author & tags

I am a passionate writer and blogger that's obsessed with all things Pokemon but Shiny Pokemon are my favorite thing to collect. Likes: Ramen, his shiny Shinx. Dislikes: Anything with more than 2 legs, Octopi & Goats.

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