One player’s analysis shows how likely we are to unlock Farfetch’d and Kangaskhan

Pokemon GO spawn rates region exclusives
Pokemon GO spawn rates region exclusives

A redditor name lolypuppy has created a great analysis covering the past few days of the Global Catch Challenge and depicting how the current catch numbers relate to the overall 3 billion catches goal.

The results are very interesting, as they show we should be reaching as high as 3.5 B catches if the latest catch trend continues and we should definitely hit the 3 B mark if the current average continues.

The following graph depicts the trends in question:

About the graph:

  • Yellow line: the goal to reach 3,000,000,000 Pokemon;
  • Red line: our current results (as soon as we reach the goal line, it will become green);
  • Red dotted line: trend following our overall average;
  • Green line: trend if we keep catching as much as the pace of the last segment informed by Niantic;

More info

According to Lolypuppy’s analysis, the past reported segment the “partial trends” are increasing with every new metric reported by Niantic, indicating that more and more players are participating in the challenge.

Unsurprisingly, the largest increase occurred when we managed to unlock the Bronze reward tier, activating double XP and increased worldwide spawns.

The following table details every segment Lolypuppy recorded (timeframe is the time between Niantic’s report tweets) and it translates the segment data to a trend metric. The second column should be taken with a grain of salt:

Timeframe Equivalent catches/day
24 hours (19th 10:43am – 20th 10:43am) 298M
12 hours (20th 10:43am – 20th 11:17pm) 385M
15 hours (20th 11:17pm – 21st 02:12pm) 468M
10 hours (21st 02:12pm – 22nd 01:14am) 500M
10 hours (22nd 01:14am – 22nd 11:45am) 509M
11 hours (22nd 11:45am – 22nd 11:10pm) 567M

Finally, the complete metrics for November 19th – 22nd were also collected:

Week day Timeframe Pokemon caught
Sunday 19th 10:43am – 20th 10:43am 298M
Monday 20th 10:43am – 21st 10:43am 414M
Tuesday 21st 10:43am – 22nd 10:43am 497M